Preparing for a Post-Trump World
Victor C. Bolles
May 1, 2025
You may think it is premature to start thinking about what we need to do after Donald Trump leaves the White House. But it is not! In 2028, it is likely that the MAGA Republicans will nominate a Donald Trump clone and the progressive Democrats will nominate someone even further left than Kamala Harris recreating the divisive 2024 election all over again. In this commentary we will discuss why we need a plan to break America out of its populist death spiral.
Quote from the commentary:
These radicalized political parties will offer nothing new in the 2028 election. Their message, each in their own way, is essentially un-American. Has been and will continue to be. The MAGA-populists will offer the great power politics and mercantilist economics of the 17th and 18th century that the American Revolution specifically rejected. And the progressive populists are reluctant to modify their anti-capitalist economic policies or their anti-Western culture wars.
Victor C. Bolles
April 23, 2025
President Trump’s tariff policies are roiling markets worldwide. But there is one Trump advisor who writings provide insight into the president’s thinking. Dr. Stephen Miran is the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in the new Trump Administration and he explains why there must be changes in the global trading system. But in this commentary we look at why tariffs are not the economic tools that everybody thinks they are.
Quote from the commentary:
“Tariffs are arbitrary and can be adapted to address issues with each country. And these tariffs do not have to be strictly trade related as was the case of the 25% fentanyl tariffs President Trump imposed on Canada and Mexico. In fact, Dr. Miran’s essay lists more than ten other reasons that could justify the imposition of tariffs in varying degrees, none of which are economic in nature.”
Victor C. Bolles
April 11, 2025
President Trump claimed that he paused the implementation of his tariff program because of yippy investors. But when market fundamentals have become meaningless and trade relations developed over many decades, are thrown out the window, the movements of markets boils down to one thing, whatever President Trump last said. And even worse, no one has any idea what he will say next. I don’t know about you but that makes me pretty yippy.
Quote from the commentary:
“President Trump has always liked being unpredictable, he believes it gives him an advantage in negotiations. That may be good for playing poker but not so much for running a country.”
Victor C. Bolles
April 7, 2025
Today we are going to continue to talk about the impact of Donald Trump’s new tariff regime on the US and world economy. Or in this case, the lack of impact. Because there is a reason that President Trump’s tariff policies will not recreate the blue-collar manufacturing paradise that existed in the 1950s. And included in this commentary is a chapter from my book, Edifice of Trust (published in 2016), that illustrates that the issues being raised right now are not new and will not be solved by magic bullets but will require a lot of hard work by all of us.
Unintended (but not Unexpected) Consequences
Victor C. Bolles
April 1, 2025
Commentators are pointing out all the obvious unintended consequences of President Trump’s tariff plan which he plans to announce on April 2nd, Liberation Day. But there may be other consequences in places you haven’t looked. In this commentary we look at the political consequences of a protectionist import substitution regime.
Quote from the commentary:
But there is one more major consequence of protectionist import substitution schemes such as President Trump is proposing – the political impact. Import substitution puts the control of the economy into the hands of government, just as much as socialist central planning.
The Presumptuousness of Academia
Victor C. Bolles
March 20, 2025
Academics in the ivory tower have an affinity for socialism because they presume, based on their academic qualifications, that they will be at the pinnacle of power in such a society. They are wrong! In this commentary we will look at where the real power lies.
Quote from the commentary:
“It is not the best and brightest that run socialist societies. It is not the most public spirited people that run socialist societies. It is the most power hungry that run socialist societies.”
Victor C. Bolles
March 14, 2025
Do punitive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China have any chance of slowing the flow of fentanyl and other drugs into the US? Nothing else has worked. But President Trump’s plan ignores one major factor. The insatiable desire of Americans for drugs, even at the risk of their own lives. In this commentary we look at the likely outcomes of this strategy and take a peek at the underlying motivations for punitive tariffs.
Quote from the commentary:
“One must be abysmally stupid or horrifically oblivious to take an unknown drug that could kill you. The DEA reports that half of the pills it tested contained deadly amounts of fentanyl. Unfortunately, abysmally stupid and horrifically oblivious seems to describe a huge swath of our population especially the young.”
Victor C. Bolles
May 7, 2025
Antifragile is a concept created by Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan, to describe the ability to gain and prosper amid confusion and disorder. Certain people thrive in this environment and President Trump is a prime example of this ability. In this commentary we discuss how antifragility is this secret sauce that contributes to America’s greatness.
Quote from the commentary:
But month after month of chaotic activity creating ever greater uncertainty and fear will eventually become unbearable. President Trump may be as happy as Brer Rabbit in the Briar Patch amidst all this chaos and disruption but most everybody else hates it. The American people are more antifragile than any other people in the world, but they have their limits.
Victor C. Bolles
March 4, 2025
Why in the world would two world leaders invite reporters into a meeting to negotiate a vital agreement to end the war on Ukraine. President Zelensky was about as eager to sign that agreement as a tienda owner on the lower east side agreeing to pay some thug for protection against gangs (of which the thug was a member).In this commentary we look at the underlying causes why this meeting was such a disaster.
Quote from the commentary:
President Zelenskyy tried to convince President Trump that Putin could not be trusted. He explained how Putin had repeatedly broken agreements (25 times he said during the meeting). Trump clearly thought he could control Putin. “I don't worry about security,” he said. But Zelenskyy could not afford to be so nonchalant about security, his country and his people were at risk.
Victor C. Bolles
February 25, 2025
After Hoover Institute fellow Niall Ferguson criticized the Trump administration’s tactics in negotiating a peace agreement for the war in Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance called Ferguson’s critique moralistic garbage and accused Mr. Ferguson of being a globalist, apparently the lowest of the low in the MAGA world. In this commentary we try to understand the real reason for Mr. Vance’s heated response.
Quote form the Commentary:
Mr. Piatov wrote that Mr. Vance and Elon Musk (an AfD supporter) may not realize that AfD leader Alice Weidel “recently wrote an op-ed referring to Germans as “slaves” of the U.S., offering a glimpse into the party’s deeply anti-Western ideology.” But I disagree. I think Mr. Vance not only understands AfD’s anti-Western ideology but shares it.
Victor C. Bolles
February 21, 2025
Today we are going to take a look at how economies function when domestic companies are protected by high tariffs and how this system called import substitution ripples through the lives of people on Main Street and well as Wall Street. When it comes to import substitution I speak from experience.
Quote from the commentary:
“So the only way to maximize profits in an import substitution economy is not to build the better mousetrap but to influence government. Tariffs to protect your products from competition. Carve-outs to protect your supply lines. Import substitution is rife with crony capitalism.”
Victor C. Bolles
February 14, 2025
President Trump is constantly threatening to impose tariffs on countries that export more goods and services to the United States than they buy from us creating a trade deficit. He believes that a trade deficit is losing big time. But Mr. Trump’s economic thinking is old fashioned and wrong-headed, like thinking that foreign countries pay for tariffs. In this commentary we look at why trade deficits are a good thing for the United States.
Quote from the commentary:
“The dollar is one of the greatest assets that the United States has as long as it is the world’s reserve currency. Almost all international transactions are paid for in dollars. When the US applies financial sanctions on adversaries it cripples their economies. Sanctions on Russia are crippling its war effort against Ukraine. Iran was near financial collapse due to US sanctions until the Biden administration lifted those sanctions.”
