Victor C. Bolles
June 17, 2025
Amidst all the chaos swirling around us, all is calm in the eye of the storm. President Trump is at the center of this storm of activity announcing new policies and issuing executive orders while he remains calm and confident. In this commentary we discuss why maybe you shouldn’t be so calm and confident.
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Donald Trump is an agent of change. He intends to leave not just the United States but the entire world a very different place from what is was when he was elected. But the forces he is unleashing may exceed his ability to control them.
You Are Not Entitled to Anything
Victor C. Bolles
June 11, 2025
What kind of Post-Trump world do we want to live in? The MAGA-Republicans and progressive left Democrats are in a bitter fight for the vote of American citizens, one side offering tax cuts galore for wealthy citizens and favored industries (funded by massive and unsustainable increases in the public debt), the other side offering an avalanche of benefits for favored identities and favored industries (funded by massive and unsustainable increases in the public debt). In this commentary, we look at what we really need to navigate in a Post-Trump world.
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And because the government does not create wealth, the cost of positive rights must be paid by some citizens for the benefit of other citizens. These payments may be in the form of taxes such that wealthier citizens fund the benefits to poorer citizens. Or they may be in the form of deficit spending, borrowing the funds such that future citizens pay for the benefits of current citizens.
The First Step toward a Post-Trump World
Victor C. Bolles
May 28, 2025
There are many barriers to our goal of rejuvenating America in a post-Trump world. The first step in this rejuvenation effort is getting a government that works so that we have a solid foundation which can support our efforts. The US congress can’t pass a budget, can’t manage our finances and can’t get important policies approved with a bipartisan consensus. In order to get a government that works we must reform Congress. In this commentary we discuss some of the important reforms needed to set Congress on the right track.
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Reinhart and Rogoff wrote that there is a point of no return where the debt trap becomes impossible to escape. The United States in nearing that point of no return. The desperate attempt to promote ever more economic growth at all costs only increases the fragility of the economy and our exposure to a debt crisis.
Victor C. Bolles
May 23, 2025
Last week President Trump travelled to the Middle East with 60 CEOs in tow to be feted with parades and receptions galore and gifted a 747 airplane to replace his aging Air Force one. But amongst all the hoopla President Trump made a major foreign policy speech denouncing “interventionalists” who tried to impose Western values on Middle Eastern potentates to no avail. His speech asserted his position as a foreign policy realist. In this commentary we look at why his foreign policy may not be as realist as he thinks.
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Mr. Trump believes that the lure of wealth and prosperity can overcome war and hostility. He thought he could quickly end the War on Ukraine by dangling peace and prosperity before Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The war continues.
Critical Elements for a Post-Trump World
Victor C. Bolles
May 15, 2025
If we believe that the second Trump administration is the culmination of a vicious downward spiral that has afflicted the United States throughout the 21st century and we want to do something to break out of this malaise then we cannot replicate the same old politics of the past. We must do something different to change the slope of this spiral. In this commentary we look at four critical elements to create a virtuous upward spiral for America.
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Before getting into the weeds of specific policies we need to define what are the critical elements indispensable to the rejuvenation of America. I use the word rejuvenation purposefully because we need to recapture that youthful determination of our country’s exceptional nature that we had at our founding if we hope to replace this post-Trump distortion of America with something better.
Preparing for a Post-Trump World
Victor C. Bolles
May 1, 2025
You may think it is premature to start thinking about what we need to do after Donald Trump leaves the White House. But it is not! In 2028, it is likely that the MAGA Republicans will nominate a Donald Trump clone and the progressive Democrats will nominate someone even further left than Kamala Harris recreating the divisive 2024 election all over again. In this commentary we will discuss why we need a plan to break America out of its populist death spiral.
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These radicalized political parties will offer nothing new in the 2028 election. Their message, each in their own way, is essentially un-American. Has been and will continue to be. The MAGA-populists will offer the great power politics and mercantilist economics of the 17th and 18th century that the American Revolution specifically rejected. And the progressive populists are reluctant to modify their anti-capitalist economic policies or their anti-Western culture wars.
Victor C. Bolles
April 23, 2025
President Trump’s tariff policies are roiling markets worldwide. But there is one Trump advisor who writings provide insight into the president’s thinking. Dr. Stephen Miran is the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in the new Trump Administration and he explains why there must be changes in the global trading system. But in this commentary we look at why tariffs are not the economic tools that everybody thinks they are.
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“Tariffs are arbitrary and can be adapted to address issues with each country. And these tariffs do not have to be strictly trade related as was the case of the 25% fentanyl tariffs President Trump imposed on Canada and Mexico. In fact, Dr. Miran’s essay lists more than ten other reasons that could justify the imposition of tariffs in varying degrees, none of which are economic in nature.”
Victor C. Bolles
April 11, 2025
President Trump claimed that he paused the implementation of his tariff program because of yippy investors. But when market fundamentals have become meaningless and trade relations developed over many decades, are thrown out the window, the movements of markets boils down to one thing, whatever President Trump last said. And even worse, no one has any idea what he will say next. I don’t know about you but that makes me pretty yippy.
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“President Trump has always liked being unpredictable, he believes it gives him an advantage in negotiations. That may be good for playing poker but not so much for running a country.”
Victor C. Bolles
April 7, 2025
Today we are going to continue to talk about the impact of Donald Trump’s new tariff regime on the US and world economy. Or in this case, the lack of impact. Because there is a reason that President Trump’s tariff policies will not recreate the blue-collar manufacturing paradise that existed in the 1950s. And included in this commentary is a chapter from my book, Edifice of Trust (published in 2016), that illustrates that the issues being raised right now are not new and will not be solved by magic bullets but will require a lot of hard work by all of us.
Unintended (but not Unexpected) Consequences
Victor C. Bolles
April 1, 2025
Commentators are pointing out all the obvious unintended consequences of President Trump’s tariff plan which he plans to announce on April 2nd, Liberation Day. But there may be other consequences in places you haven’t looked. In this commentary we look at the political consequences of a protectionist import substitution regime.
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But there is one more major consequence of protectionist import substitution schemes such as President Trump is proposing – the political impact. Import substitution puts the control of the economy into the hands of government, just as much as socialist central planning.
The Presumptuousness of Academia
Victor C. Bolles
March 20, 2025
Academics in the ivory tower have an affinity for socialism because they presume, based on their academic qualifications, that they will be at the pinnacle of power in such a society. They are wrong! In this commentary we will look at where the real power lies.
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“It is not the best and brightest that run socialist societies. It is not the most public spirited people that run socialist societies. It is the most power hungry that run socialist societies.”
Victor C. Bolles
March 14, 2025
Do punitive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China have any chance of slowing the flow of fentanyl and other drugs into the US? Nothing else has worked. But President Trump’s plan ignores one major factor. The insatiable desire of Americans for drugs, even at the risk of their own lives. In this commentary we look at the likely outcomes of this strategy and take a peek at the underlying motivations for punitive tariffs.
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“One must be abysmally stupid or horrifically oblivious to take an unknown drug that could kill you. The DEA reports that half of the pills it tested contained deadly amounts of fentanyl. Unfortunately, abysmally stupid and horrifically oblivious seems to describe a huge swath of our population especially the young.”
Victor C. Bolles
May 7, 2025
Antifragile is a concept created by Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan, to describe the ability to gain and prosper amid confusion and disorder. Certain people thrive in this environment and President Trump is a prime example of this ability. In this commentary we discuss how antifragility is this secret sauce that contributes to America’s greatness.
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But month after month of chaotic activity creating ever greater uncertainty and fear will eventually become unbearable. President Trump may be as happy as Brer Rabbit in the Briar Patch amidst all this chaos and disruption but most everybody else hates it. The American people are more antifragile than any other people in the world, but they have their limits.
