Critical Elements for a Post-Trump World

So, if we want to create a rejuvenated America from the ashes of a dystopian Trump world, and if we do not want to return to the divisive culture wars of the socialist inspired progressives (which was the reason Trump was reelected over Harris), and, further, if we do not want to return to the traditional Democratic and Republican parties whose failures were the reasons behind the rise of the MAGA-Republicans and the progressive left Democrats, we will have to create a new version of America that matches 21st century realities while preserving the values and principles upon which America was founded 250 years ago.

Before getting into the weeds of specific policies we need to define what are the critical elements indispensable to the rejuvenation of America. I use the word rejuvenation purposefully because we need to recapture that youthful determination of our country’s exceptional nature that we had at our founding if we hope to replace this post-Trump distortion of America with something better.

As I see it there four critical elements that must be present for any country is to be successful and these are the areas that have been decimated by our current political class. We need to make sure whoever leads us into the post-Trump world understands our strategic situation and makes sure that these factors are incorporated into any effort to relaunch America. These factors are all interrelated and it is not possible to achieve success in any one factor without the others. The first is national defense. Clearly , if we can’t control our independence as a nation we will lack the ability to achieve anything. The second factor is a strong economy. A strong economy must look beyond GDP and that means we have the ability to provide for our defense as well as provide for our citizens. A third factor is an educated populace. Without educated citizens we will lack the ability to build a strong economy and defend our nation. The factor that links all these elements together is a common American culture. A common culture is essential so that citizens can communicate with each other about the priority of common goals. Citizens need to feel that they belong to something that they share with other citizens. With that foundation our post-Trump leaders will be able to bridge our division and unite us around this common American culture.

First, Defense is not an Afterthought

A country that cannot protect its territory is not a country, it is just open land awaiting its next conqueror. As Ellen Churchill Semple notes in her book, Influences of Geographic Environment, “the rise and decline of not only peoples but of whole civilizations have depended upon their relations to area (territory). Therefore problems of area, such as the expansion of a small territory, the economic and political mastery of a large one dominate all history.” Early America benefited from vast oceans that protected it from the depredations of the European great powers so that it could concentrate on its own geographic expansion in the Western Hemisphere. Such natural protection no longer exists as even puny countries such as North Korea can strike the United States within a few minutes.

As leader of the free world the United States needed a powerful military, one that could not only protect trade routes and back up our allies but also protect other countries (such as Kuwait) from the attacks of regional powers. This formidable US military power was backed up by a network of allied and friendly countries which, although their military participation was substantially less than that of the US, created a “Coalition of the Willing” that provided substantial moral authority for military action.

Beginning with Barack Obama’s Leading from Behind, the United States has reduced its leadership role culminating with Donald Trump’s threats to leave NATO. But this reduced leadership role has not reduced the potential threats to the US nor reduced the need for a strong defense. Autocracies view weakness as an opportunity for aggression and the vacuum created by America’s retreat from global leadership has been filled with rising autocratic powers eager to expand their spheres of influence. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a clear example of this new dynamic.

And as Ms. Semple notes, migration can be as effective as military invasion in conquering and maintaining control of territory. To the extent that immigrants are not assimilated into the host country, the impetus toward conflict will grow, as shown by rising violence in Europe. Our post-Trump leaders must not only defend our border but build an immigration policy that enhances the defense our country and strengthens its economy.

Add in non-state actors such as Al-Qaida, the Islamic State and Boko Haram and the entire globe becomes a cauldron of potential violence. The United States would have a great deal of difficulty in maintaining peace on its own even if the Trump Administration was so inclined. These dangers will not dissipate in the post-Trump world so it will be essential that America not only reinforce its military capabilities, it must move to repair its relationships with allies around the world while, at the same time, requiring them to be more active participants in peacekeeping activities.

Secondly, Economic Growth is not Enough

A strong economy is different than a growing economy. The American economy has been growing faster than the economies of other developed countries and, as noted by the Economist Magazine, is the envy of the world. But much of that growth has been created by deficit spending. Deficit spending caused largely by entitlement transfers creates consumer demand that is not matched by increasing productive capacity, requiring consumers to satiate their demand through imported products. America will not have a strong economy until it gets its deficits under control and begins to reduce the burden of its enormous public debt. Politicians of both parties insist that economic growth will reduce the burden of our public but this has not been the case since the times of Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan. Prior to them our leaders were able to pay down our public debt while creating the economic powerhouse of the world. We need to replicate that dynamic in our rejuvenated America.

Some of the economic policies being implemented by the current Trump administration that will also have an impact in the Post-Trump world are beneficial. In many cases, the Trump problem is not what he is doing but what he is overdoing. My house plants need water but too much water will kill them. Harsh treatment of hardened criminals may be warranted. But the harsh treatment of hard-working but undocumented families or tourists with visa problems provokes negative reactions blunting the effectiveness of the intended policies.

Global trade is one area that does need to be reoriented, as discussed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a recent op-ed, but not because of the trade deficit which is not caused by the depredations of our trading partners but by our own fiscal policies. Covid showed us that our extended supply lines designed to be cost efficient were vulnerable to disruptions caused by either natural disasters or man-made actions. Free trade may be great in a peaceful world, but in the increasingly dangerous world we are living in supply lines of critical materials must be secure.

President Trump treats the trade deficits with friends and foes the same and so has imposed draconian tariffs on our neighbors and long-time trading partners. To him, the only alternative to off-shoring is on-shoring, there is no such thing as friend-shoring. But while some of the trade policies of our friends are not very friendly, a trading bloc of friendly like-minded countries gives us great power in the struggles with rising autocracies. Trade relations in the post-Trump Western world needs to be less transactional and more strategic.

Other policies discussed by Secretary Bessent such as deregulation will have a large positive impact (as it did in the first Trump Administration) but making the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act permanent plus additional tax giveaways will not make for a strong economy. First, the 2017 act was based on a lie. The reason those cuts were not permanent was because of the huge impact they would have had on the deficit and the amount of public debt needed to pay for it in order to extend those cuts. Temporary tax cuts of Republicans are no different from the temporary entitlements proposed by Democrats, just fraudulent deceptions of US citizens in order to gain political power. 

A strong economy requires energy and lots of it. A Green New Deal makes no sense if our adversaries ignore climate change. We need an “all of the above” strategy that includes reliable energy from hydrocarbons and nuclear power in addition to renewables. And we need to streamline the development of these resources as well as other essential materials that have been hampered by environmentalist obstruction that delay development and explodes the cost of these projects.

And finally, we need to get control of runaway entitlement costs that are bankrupting the country and increasing the public debt. Modern societies require a certain level of welfare benefits for the less fortunate but we must realize that these entitlements are not productive and do little to strengthen the economy. Europeans have greatly expanded the modern welfare state and pay for it with a heavy tax burden (shared by all citizens and not just the wealthy) but at a cost of economic vitality. In America we have proof that the War on Poverty and other welfare programs not only have been a drag on economic growth but have also had a horrible cultural impact resulting in the breakdown of the family structure that ripples throughout our society with fatherless children, rising drug dependency, mental illness and suicide.

Only with reform of entitlements and a reduction in dependency of American citizens will we be able to tackle the enormous public debt of $35 trillion. The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency will have only a minor impact on this indebtedness. DOGE does not address the real cause of the problem. Further, any gains made by DOGE will likely disappear over time as democratic governments are inherently inefficient.

The Key to Rejuvenation is a Well-educated Populace

Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio wrote in his book, The Changing World Order, that history showed a series of civilizations or world orders that would rise, gain dominance but eventually go into decline and be replaced by a new rising world order. He catalogued how the Dutch Colonial empire grew to great size despite the small population and area of Holland. A key factor in the rise of the Dutch was the high level of education of the Dutch people. The Dutch were replaced by the English where they applied knowledge and science to create the industrial revolution. And, eventually, it was America with its well educated population and innovative businesses that created a world order that has lasted since the end of World War Two. Mr. Dalio now predictsthat China will replace the American world order due, at least in part, to their superior education of their children compared to the terrible education our kids are getting. This must stop.

The situation in Chicago is illustrative. The Illinois Policy Institute reports that less than 1 in 3 Chicago Public School Students read at grade level and the scores are even worse in math proficiency. The case is even worse (much worse) for poor minority students. This in a city that spends $25,459 per student (up 50% in five years) and where the mayor of the city is a former teachers’ union organizer. We cannot build a strong economy without a skilled workforce and the teachers’ unions are the biggest impediment to achieving that goal.

The solution to our poorly educated youth may not be simple or easy but I can tell you one thing, money will not solve this problem. The US already spends more than almost anybody else on a per student basis for, at best, mediocre results (sort of like our health care). High paid teachers and smaller class rooms haven’t helped. I am sure the many additional administrative staff have not helped either. And I am also sure that many of those administrative staff members are dedicated toward raising the self-esteem of students. Ten years ago venture capitalist Mary Meeker reported our student’s self-confidence super-high but was at variance with their competence. But now, psychologist Jonathan Haidt reports that our students suffer from unprecedented levels of anxiety, depression and suicide. Whatever the cause it is clear that our public schools are failing their mission .

Competition would certainly help our kids by giving their parents more choices in selecting their schools. We need to keep in mind that unions exist for the benefit of their members (in this case, teachers and administrators) and not for consumers (kids and their parents) no matter what the union leaders say. When there is a monopoly (or near monopoly) as in the case of Chicago, it is the consumers that suffer.

Our publicly educated kids may not be ready for college but it is clear that our colleges can provide excellent educations as exemplified by all the super successful graduates from foreign countries. The Institute for Progress reports that 60% of America’s AI companies were founded by immigrants. It is our home grown students with worthless degrees in gender or ethnic studies that can’t repay their student loans. Many of our elite universities, especially where professors and staff had to swear allegiance to DEI ideology to apply for the position, are more interested in creating ideological activists than scholars. Legal immigrant students paying high out-of-state tuition don’t have time for that (unlike undocumented students that are offered in-state tuition and other benefits).

President Trump is correct in trying to revamp our education system although it is unclear if his policies will achieve their goals. Eliminating the Education Department will put K-12 schooling in the hands of the states and local communities, which may be great in some states and awful in others. And punishing universities and taking away their tax exempt status seems more like retribution than reform. It is likely that in the post-Trump world fixing our educational system will remain a top priority.

A Common Culture to Bind Us Together

It seems as if the United States has been constantly engaged in a cultural war even though the nature of the culture and the nature of the war has been constantly changing. At first it was Mid-Atlantic and southern farmers against New England seafarers. Later it was Northern industrialists against Southern slave holders. Cattlemen against settlers. Immigrant blue collar workers against robber barons and bankers.

But in times of trouble Americans were able to unite in a common cause as occurred in the Revolutionary War and in the World Wars. Even after a bitter Civil War Americans were able to cobble our nation back together. It was founding principles and shared values that held us together.

Currently, President Trump and his MAGA followers are waging a fierce cultural war with the “Woke” progressive left. But this cultural war seems different. Because it is different. The two sides do not share the same values and principles so their differences are irreconcilable. Each side claims to be fighting for American principles and values but, in fact, neither side represents traditional American values. Mr. Trump’s MAGA movement has adopted the beliefs of national conservatism which specifically rejects the Enlightenment universal values on which America was founded, prompting him to say he doesn’t know if he is required uphold the Constitution (despite his Oath of Office). National conservatism is a regression to the political stand-off between great powers that dominated the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. President Trump’s tariffs and protectionism also reflect the mercantilism of that period.

The progressive left also rejects America’s founding principles, sacrificing personal liberty and economic freedom for the social justice of state enforced socialism. Their version of identity politics and anti-racist race preferences are based on unproven theories that themselves are outgrowths of failed beliefs in Marxist ideas and post-modernist philosophies. To them, the Constitution is a “living” document that cannot be interpreted literally but must be interpreted to conform to their social justice agenda.

Many well-meaning people are likely to say that diversity is our strength without understanding how to utilize diversity. Diversity in ways of thinking can indeed be a source of strength so long as the diverse thinkers are trying to achieve a common goal, as shown by Scott Page in his book about diversity, The Difference. But a diversity of goals (which is what we have now) is merely chaos. Rabbi Sacks stated in his book, Morality, that a country needs a common culture that is understood by all citizens because this is the only way citizens can understand one another. In the biblical story of the tower of Babel, God confounded the unity of mankind by creating diverse languages so they could no longer understand each other.

To be successful, a nation needs a common culture so that the people can be unified in seeking commonly agreed goals. In most nations this common culture is based on language, religion, ethnicity or some other factor that most of the people in that society share. Autocracies on both the left and right attempt to unify their countries by imposing a common culture as determined by the authorities. The Nazis tried to purify the blood of the German volk by applying the final solution to peoples of other ethnicities they considered inferior such as the Jews and the gypsies. The Communist Party of China is trying to wipe out the cultures of the Uighurs and Tibetans by forcing them to adopt the Han Chinese culture. The main premise of the national conservative movement supports this concept of national identity over universal values.

But the United States is a country of immigrants, with many different ethnicities, religions and languages. The only thing holding America together are the universal values as expressed by the Founders. Those values are an amalgamation of many different influences including English common law, Enlightenment philosophy, Judeo-Christian principles and middle-class values that promote personal and economic liberty to the citizens of the country. These are the same principles and values that the National Museum of African American Culture and History called white culture. But whiteness has nothing to do with it. These are universal values and they are American values.

Conclusion

I am pretty sure we (meaning America) will survive Donald Trump. But the country is likely to be in a weakened condition with a diminished capacity to be a world leader. And the division of the American people created by the MAGA-right and progressive-left is likely to remain. The MAGA-Republicans and the progressive left will remain active and will try and push forward their radical agendas. But President Trump’s radical policies will have shown the limitations of right-wing populism just as the Biden administration showed the limitations of the left. We need to a plan to restore the exceptional nature of America as envisioned by the Founders. In the next commentary we will explore how to do just that.