Who Needs Allies?

My most recent copy of Foreign Affairs Magazine arrived with the headline, Who Needs Allies? Most of the articles in that issue went on to say, “We do.” Usually the articles in Foreign Affairs are pretty conventional. The authors are academics and often were senior officials in previous administrations. But most of the articles in this issue agreed with the notion that it will not be possible to revivify the old rules-based international order that had dominated the globe since the end of World War Two but seems to have lost its mojo recently. That rules-based system had been created by the United States and the other victorious allies to help the world recover from the devastation of global war.

That rules-based order had worked pretty darn well for many decades culminating with the collapse of the Soviet Union and a belief that the universal acceptance of the “Washington Consensus” would mean the “end of history.” But at the peak of the success of Western Civilization it all began to fall apart. Donald Trump did not cause the retreat of the rules-based world order and the rise of populism and autocracy around the globe – he is more of a symptom of that malady. But he is determined to make sure that the old rules-based order is dead and buried and is doing everything in his power to upset the fading remnants of that order.

The backbone of that old order had been NATO and a system of other alliances with mostly democratic countries around the world. The corpus of that old order had been a plethora of multilateral institutions that managed the financial system, world trade, global health and human rights. Those institutions were in large part derived from the customs, culture and philosophy of the Anglosphere inherited from English common law and codified in the US constitution. The rules-based world order was developed to replace the problems of the old Great Power world order that had culminated in two devastating world wars. It seems that Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping want to return to that world.

But why? Back in the era of the Great Powers, alliances among the great power nations were based on power, mostly military power. Alliances were temporary. They were not based on common ideology, common culture, similar form of government, language or even religion. Alliances were established to offset the power of other countries. If one country gained too much power (for example, Napoleonic France) alliances would shift to offset that power. Because alliances were not enduring but instead constantly shifting, the great power struggles resulted in battles and wars to enhance one’s own power or limit the power of others. The result was instability and many more years of war than of peace.

In the aftermath of World War Two, the victorious allies wanted to create a better world, a world made by liberal democracies for the benefit of liberal democracies even though there were very few democracies in the world at that time (primarily the Anglosphere and Nordic countries). But democracies benefitted and prospered from the rules based order so more and more countries became democracies in two great waves, one following the defeat of fascist dictatorships at the end of World War Two and a second following the collapse of the Soviet Union that showed the utter failure of the dictatorship of the proletariat. The establishment of the NATO alliance that was able to contain the expansion of the Soviet Union was critical to the success of that rules-based order.

But many countries around the world remained outside the democratic orbit, corrupt kleptocracies, medieval monarchies, fanatic theocracies and socialist holdouts. The leaders of these countries chafed at the rules-based world order even while their people fled to the safety and prosperity of the West. The leaders of those countries discovered that not only could they participate in the institutions of the rules-based order without reforming their governments or limiting their nefarious activities, they could also infiltrate and capture these institutions to further their ambitions. As a result, these institutions are failing in their mission to inculcate democratic values and the rule of law in developing countries around the world, leading to an ebb tide of democracy and the rise of autocracy.

Is liberal democracy at a dead end? Is the rise of populism and with it a precipitous slide toward autocracy inevitable? Founder President John Adams thought so. He is famous, or rather infamous, for saying, “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide.” Although we lasted a lot longer than Adams thought we would, we now seem to be in a long, slow process of the suicide Adams foresaw.

Most people do not understand what democracy is. People around the world and in the United States believe that democracy is the solution to all their problems. But democracy is not a solution, it is a tool. The solution lies in how the tool is used. Using relatively simple tools, Stradivarius could make exquisite violins now worth a fortune. With the best modern tools I couldn’t come close to equaling Stradivarius. There are things we can do to make our democracy function better, but the success of our democracy will always be limited by our human frailty. The best we can hope for is for a functioning but imperfect form of government that we have the ability to reform when it inevitably goes astray.

One thing we have learned is that certain cultures and civilizations are not amenable to democracy at their current stage of development and their inclusion in a democratic rules-based order would be detrimental to that order. Because previous administrations thought that democracy was the solution American foreign policy tried to install democracy in countries as the all-purpose solution to their problems no matter their stage of development or their local culture. The result has been a cockup similar to my trying to make a violin. And because the Trump administration and other national conservatives believe that western values (including democracy) are a barrier meant to forestall their ambitions they are trying to undo the rules-based order and replace it with the antiquated great power solution where the winner takes all.

The people of the world should fear the resurgence of great power ambitions which will have dire consequences for most of us. A modified and reformed rules-based order would be a benefit to mankind but the autocratic powers will not be willing to give up the gains they have recently made. But in a post-Trump world there is a chance, just a chance, that a new reimagined Western rules-based order could be reignited.

Two things will be required to reignite the flame of a Western civilization led by a revivified America. The first is the revalidation of the Enlightenment principles and middle class values that made America great in the first place. The transactional America imagined by President Trump, bereft of any values or principles, may be wealthy and powerful but it will never be great, it will never be truly America. And while our adherence to tour founding values and principles was spotty at best, at least we knew that we aspired to follow our founding ideals. And slowly, oh so slowly, we made progress toward achieving those goals. We can do it again.

Secondly, we must rebuild the network of friends and allies that want to join us in a rules-based order that benefits all of its members. But the multilateral institutions and international organizations of this reimagined order must be reserved for those that share our values. We must be firm in our belief that our Western civilization is best – for us. No more trying to cram square-pegged countries into the round holes of Western culture. Western culture is an individualistic culture and individuals from other countries are welcome to join us but not to subvert the individualistic nature of our culture.

But rebuilding and even expanding our network of friends and allies will not be easy. President Trump believes that uncertainty gives him an advantage in any negotiation. And for a world order based on transactions (as Mr. Trump is trying to create) such uncertainty might give an advantage over an adversary. Such uncertainty would be a potent tool for a powerful country but it would work to the disadvantage of everybody else. So Mr. Trump has sewn uncertainty amongst our NATO allies and trading partners, giving them the same treatment (or even worse) as true adversaries.

Trust is earned, not by words, but by actions. An expanding circle of trust is the basis of any civil society and is the foundation on which a civilization must rely. But trust is slowly gained and easily lost. The recent actions of President Trump have cost us the trust of our friends and allies and it will take a long time to regain that trust. As strong as we are we will be even stronger with a broad-based alliance of like-minded countries. But we need to rebuild that trust that makes such an alliance possible. We can start to regain that trust by sticking to our core ideals and principles upon which our nation was founded.