Looking for Good News

Looking for Good News

My wife always complains that my comGDPmentaries are depressing because all the topics I write about are negative and chock-full of bad news. But given the state of the world these days, that means that there is a lot to write about. Trying to write about good news takes a bit more work.

But there is some good news out there. The US economy keeps chugging along with growth around 2%. That might seem a bit anemic but compared to the rest of the world its pretty darn good. The stock market is near record highs which has been very good for my 401(k) and probably yours too! Tech stocks, driven by artificial intelligence, are leading markets higher but companies across the board are reporting solid earnings in addition to tariff refunds.

Unemployment remains at historical lows near 4.1%. AI does not seem to have had much impact so far and demand for skilled workers is soaring. Wages are also increasing, mostly keeping up with inflation. Friday’s jobs report was positive, very positive  – so, of course, the market sold off.

Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target rate of 2.0% at around 3.4% led by gasoline and fuel oil. The conflict with Iran has disrupted energy prices around the world but as the world’s largest oil producer, the United States has been less impacted than most other countries. Inflation in the US is troubling but is not crippling. I have lived with crippling inflation. The mortgage rate on my first house was 14.5% and back then inflation was double digits. We can survive crippling inflation. Not long after I bought my house, Ronald Reagan tamed inflation, defeated the Soviet Union and created decades of strong economic growth. The new Fed chief Kevin Warsh is doing an admirable job of keeping his mouth shut (a virtue sadly lacking in previous Fed chiefs) but he does seem more dedicated to fighting inflation than appeasing President Trump’s fetish for lower interest rates.

All of this relatively good economic news comes, not from government policies implemented by our elected officials, but in spite of our so-called leadership and their often stupid and counterproductive government policies such as erratic trade policies, “small potatoes” wars, and divisive rhetoric. These relatively positive results illustrate the underlying strength of our Founders’ vision.

And it is not just the economy that is doing well. The homicide rate is also trending downward, reaching a level in 2025 not seen in 40 years. And the FBI is reporting that crime in general is also down with rape offenses decreasing an estimated 7.6%, aggravated assault figures decreasing an estimated 7.2% and robbery offenses decreasing an estimated 18.5%. Drug overdose deaths have decreased substantially with deaths from fentanyl decreasing from about 74,000 in 2022 to around 46,000 in 2024 and to an estimated 38,000 in 2025. Still too many but heading in the right direction.

But the picture is not totally rosy. Americans, especially our youth, are said to be having all sorts of mental problems dealing with division, social media and all the other problems we face. Depression and anxiety have increased, especially among young girls since the advent of smart phones and social media as reported by Jonathan Haidt in his book, The Anxious Generation. And while suicide rates among teens remains high, it appears to have peaked around 2020. My advice to teens (as well as adults) is get a job, work your ass off, pay off your debts and you won’t have time to worry about your mental problems.

Other good news lies in the fact that while the MAGA minions and the socialist sycophants appear dedicated to fighting each other tooth and nail, most of the American people just want to return to traditional American values. Not only that, most immigrants coming to America firmly believe in the American Dream (even more than native-born Americans according to Gallup). Many of our high tech companies are led by immigrants or their offspring. Many native-born Americans believe they should be able to inherit the American Dream. They are wrong. That’s not how the Dream works. They must earn it – just like everyone else.

So the problems we face are not in our economy and they are not on our streets. They are not in the Crimean Peninsula nor they are in the strait of Hormuz. They are in our heads. The problems we face are self-created. We have given up on the pursuit of Happiness (the American Dream) and have asked politicians (of all people) to give it to us in exchange for our vote. We need to realize that it is not in the politicians’ interest to give us the American Dream on a platter. Their interest is to keep dangling the Dream in front of us like some sort of cat toy hoping this tempting lure will earn our vote.

When drafting the Constitution, Founder and future President James Madison knew that, because humans are not angels, we needed government but he also knew that the government, any government, would be led by non-angelic humans so he and the Drafters of the Constitution incorporated the checks and balances that have preserved our democratic republic for 250 years. And, to a large extent, the American people agree on a lot of things -middle class values, economic freedom and representative democracy. Again, we remain strong in spite of, and not because of, our political leadership.

There is still hope. The American Dream still lies before us.