Our French Future

As I watched rioting students in France on the TV monitor in the weight room as I did my morning cardio, I thought that this would be an appropriate subject to discuss in my (almost) weekly commentaries. But before sitting down to write about the problems that France is facing (and how they are similar to the problems that we face here in America) I thought it would be a good idea to reread a previous commentary I had written about French rioting years ago. I wrote my commentary, Gilets Jaunes, (“Yellow Jackets” in French) in December 2018, almost eight years ago. Little has changed in the intervening years, Macron was the French president back then, Trump was also the US president and I was also watching riots on TV monitors in the gym.

Although the furious rioters were different and the incendiary causes were different, most of the underlying reasons behind the unrest were the same. French taxes suck up around 51% of what the entire country produces, but the ravenous social welfare system demands even more. France has run a fiscal deficit since 1974 as explained by the Wall Street Journal in a recent editorial, France’s Bonfire of Inanities (October 7, 2026), and the deficits keep growing, expected to reach 5.4% this year and 6.5% in 2027, according to EuroNews. Defense spending by France, which has averaged under 2% for the last two decades, is only expected to rise to 2.5% by the end of the decade, despite rising danger around the world (and browbeating to increase defense spending by President Trump).

Economic growth in France is feeble. According to the WSJ, “GDP grew 0.8% last year, is expected to do the same this year, and if they’re lucky it’ll hit 1.1% in 2027.” French government debt stands at 120% of GDP and the interest rate France must pay is skyrocketing, already 140 basis points above the equivalent rate of German Bund.

When I reread my commentary from eight years ago, it appeared that France was on its last legs, but somehow it managed to survive. It will likely survive this current crisis even though the top candidates in next year’s presidential election, right-wing Marine le Pen and left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are both proposing policies that will further worsen poor France’s dilemma. But surviving is a lot different than thriving. And France is not thriving.

Here in America, we do not have people rioting in the street. At least not yet. But we are not thriving either, no matter the braggadocio of President Trump at his rallies. France is jeopardizing its future with an unsustainable present. A country that must borrow heavily to maintain its current level of spending is no better than some Gen Z or millennial individual running up credit card debt. Debt can be helpful – when it is invested in something that will provide future benefits. Debt to purchase plant and equipment to increase future production makes sense. Debt to pay for current expenses that do not increase future production becomes a burden on future production reducing the ability to invest in plant and equipment as well as taking a bite out of profits. Companies in the private sector that do this to excess go bankrupt to the pain of their shareholders. Countries that do the same pass the pain on to its citizens (all of its citizens not just taxpayers).

The big question is; can France ever recover without having to endure some form of transformational tragedy, an economic collapse or revolution. Some great tragedy that will devastate millions of French men and women for many years before a recovery can occur? The cost of human suffering and death could be enormous. France is too far gone to recover without a great deal of pain. Based on the campaign promises of their main presidential candidates, the French will have to endure that great amount of pain sooner rather than later.

The next big question is; will the United States follow in France’s footsteps or will we chart a different course? Joe Biden and many Democrats certainly seemed happy to follow France down this rathole during his administration. And many Democrats seem inclined to continue on this course based on their campaign platforms for the mid-term elections. President Trump and his administration talks about controlling debts and deficits but actually does very little about the problem. US public debt has increased by $2.67 trillion in the last 12 months alone and shows little likelihood of slowing down. It is true that the US economy has grown faster than France and most of the rest of Europe. But it is also true that US economic growth has been nowhere near enough the slow the growth of debt over the last fifty years. And between leftwing Democrats and Trump Republicans the United States is only a few steps behind France on the pathway  to perdition. Economic growth at anywhere near current levels will not be able to slow debt growth very much, let alone reduce this enormous burden.

In my previous commentary about rioting in France, I had discussed how the French people were overly dependent on the government for their well-being. The French are accustomed to big government. In fact, they have known little else since the time of the Louis. But big government leaves the individual citizen little ability to control their own fate. The psychological harm this lack of agency created in its people doomed the Soviet Union. Without agency, people just go through the motions. Work becomes drudgery, patriotism becomes meaningless. The comrades in the Soviet Union could not overcome this malaise. The French have a chance to escape this fate, but it will not be easy.

Americans are different than the French (except for the French that came to America to escape big government). The agency stolen by big government does not sit well with us (when I was growing up it was considered shameful to accept welfare). We CAN recapture the spirit that made America great, and hopefully without as much sacrifice as our European friends will have to endure. But that does not mean it will be easy. First we must recognize that we have a problem and then we must accept that painful sacrifices must be made. But painful sacrifices in the present in order to secure a brighter future are what our ancestors did, and we can do it too!