Regime Change Trump-style

I think I am beginning to understand at least one aspect of President Trump’s foreign policy. My insight began when US forces captured and arrested Venezuelan President (and long-time dictator) Nicolas Maduro but left the rest of Mr. Maduro’s team in place to run the country (while ignoring the legitimacy and popularity of Maria Corina Machado, the head of the democratic opposition whose election as president was stolen by Maduro). Mr. Trump appears to believe that the nature of a Tcountry and its relationship with the United States is largely determined by the leader of that country. Take out that leader and the relationship changes. That is largely true of dictatorships but is not necessarily the case in democracies where democratic institutions, political parties and non-governmental organizations play a larger role in society. Dictatorships are easier to deal with – just mano a mano.

Mr. Trump likes to use tariffs as leverage for arranging trade relationships with other countries, especially since the size of the US economy and our huge level of imports give us tremendous power over other countries. However, tariffs don’t work on smuggled cocaine and fentanyl so Mr. Trump had to use alternative means to control the trade relationship with Venezuela where drugs had replaced oil as our principal import from that country. Was it the ruined lives of US addicts or the tremendous trade deficit caused by the massive importation of drugs that motivated him to take action? You will have to ask him yourself.

The fact that a corrupt dictatorship remains in charge of Venezuela does not seem to bother Mr. Trump. That is because the corrupt dictatorship kowtows to Mr. Trump’s orders and is willing to throw Venezuela’s oil industry into the hands of American oilmen and entrepreneurs. The fact that at least some of these oilmen and entrepreneurs are golfing buddies and pals with Mr. Trump (and hated by the democratic opposition) does not seem to bother him at all. A lot of people are going to make a lot of money dealing with this new version of the Chavez-Maduro regime.

And as I write this morning, news reports confirm that American and Israeli bombs have killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei along with many of the regime’s top leaders including the head of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the minister of defense  and the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces. President Trump is urging Iranian citizens to take to the streets again to overthrow the Islamic Revolutionary regime that has ruled that benighted country ever since 1979 while Israel and the US bomb military sites from 50,000 feet. Of course, the Iranian citizens don’t have any guns with which to fight the well-armed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) any more than the Venezuelans had against Maduro. But the Iranians also lack a more-or-less democratic opposition such as was the case in Venezuela (that President Trump chose to ignore). So who would actually take over and run a huge country of 90 million people after the collapse of the Islamic Revolutionary regime. Remaining regime leaders have named a new three man council to lead the country until a new supreme leader can be named so the Islamists are not going to give up control easily.

Already there have been rumors of cargo planes flying gold out of Iran as the corrupt leaders try to find a safe place to hide their stolen wealth. But they need not waste their time. Corruption doesn’t seem to bother Mr. Trump. Corrupt leaders he understands. It’s the fanatics that place religion, ideology or even patriotism over money and wealth that he doesn’t understand. Remember Mr. Trump called fallen US soldiers “suckers” and “losers”  Seeing as how the IRGC controls much of the Iranian economy there must be at least some guardsmen more interested in money than in religion or revolution. All those money-hungry leaders have to do is line the fanatics up against the wall to care of Mr. Trump’s concerns. If Iran stops wasting money on building nuclear weapons and exporting Islamic revolution across the Middle East there will be a lot of money to be made. Iran has almost as much oil reserves as Venezuela and if Trump can live with Delcy Rodriguez and the corrupt remnants of the Maduro regime he will be equally comfortable with whoever runs Iran as long as they tow the American line. I don’t know who those folks are but I am sure they are out there. So, although ordinary Iranians will be slaughtered in the streets of Tehran as they confront the well-armed IRGC in their attempt to rid themselves of the current regime, once the Islamic fanatics are replaced by crooks and swindlers there will be peace in the Middle East.

So, although Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu’s attacks are unprecedented and probably illegal, the outcome, at least in the short run, could be beneficial. And the Board of Peace will oversee the new allocation of wealth among the victors. So what is next? I would be willing to bet that a lot of Cuban exiles from Miami are making the trek up I-95 to Mar-a-Lago right now.