Mother Nature's Revenge

I recently watched an episode of the PBS show Eons that described how the species Homotherium, a scimitar-toothed feline predator (similar to the better known saber-toothed tiger) had spread from Africa to Eurasia and the Americas and had thrived for millions of years before becoming extinct as recently as 17,000 years ago. The reason for the extinction is unknown. It might have been climate change (the ice age ended about the same time as Homotherium), the disappearance of food sources or human beings. Homotherium was described by PBS as the ultimate cat, the apex predator of its environment. But being the ultimate cat and the apex predator could not save Homotherium from extinction. Homo Sapiens are now the ultimate species and the apex predator of the modern world, but are we on a similar path as Homotherium?

Homo sapiens are not the only human species. Others came before us, most notably Neanderthals and Denisovans. but also Homo erectus and Homo habilis stretching back almost two million years. Why did those other species disappear? It could have been climate change to which they were not well adapted. Homotherium cats arose when jungles in Africa transitioned to open savannahs. Predators adapted to solo hunting and stealth (like leopards and tigers) could not adjust to the open savannahs. Homotherium, unlike other big cats, are adapted to running and endurance instead of stealth. Homo sapiens with our long legs and upright posture are better adapted to savannahs than jungles.

But while African savannahs and the open plains of North America still exist, Homotherium is gone. Why? Homotherium and Homo sapiens competed for the same food source, the large herds of herbivores that populated those plains. Some of the ancient species that populated those open spaces are gone, but there were still huge herds of bison, elk and deer long after Homotherium was gone.

We may never know why Homotherium cats became extinct. But we do know that many species have come and gone over millions of years of evolution. Some were lost in mass extinction events like the giant meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Other just seem to have petered out and disappeared.

Our human ancestors may also have been in danger of petering out. Researchers have discovered that there was a genetic bottleneck about 930,000 years ago where our pool of ancestors was reduced to about 1300 individuals. Such a small population would make extinction a definite possibility. Those ancestors were before the rise of Homo sapiens and some researchers speculate that whatever caused the bottleneck may have spurred the different speciation that ended up creating us, as well as Neanderthals and Denisovans.

But are we approaching another bottleneck? The birthrate of humans among developed countries is plummeting. China has a birthrate of only 1.02 (per 1000 women 15-44), far below the 2.1 rate which is believed necessary to maintain a steady population (there are, of course, other factors that affect populations such as longevity, natural disasters and war). But Taiwan ‘s birthrate is even worse at 0.86 while Japan’s is little better at 1.23. Most of Europe is below 1.50 and the United States is only a little better at 1.62.

It would be easy to blame wealth and technology for this decline in fertility. We seem to be addicted to technology and obsessed with wealth. But the population of China, much less wealthy than the US, is projected to decline by hundreds of millions by 2050 and to only about half its current size by 2100. But the size of the population doesn’t tell the whole story. While the overall population of China declines, the population of older Chinese increases while younger Chinese practically vanish. To get the idea, compare the current population pyramid for Japan with that of Nigeria. You can see the population pyramids on my website, www.edificeofterust.com.

Population Pyramid Japan

Population Pyramid Nigeria

But while the population pyramid for Nigeria would indicate a rapidly growing population because of the large number of children, one needs to also note that there are very few people over 75 (less than 1%) compared to Japan where people over 75 make up over 18% of the population. It is also important to note that the countries that have the highest birth rates also have the highest infant and under-5 mortality rates (they also have the highest rates of maternal mortality).  

Mother Nature has numerous methods to deal with excess populations. An increase in predators, an increase in disease (another form of predator), limitations of food supply and changing climate conditions limit the growth of animal populations. I had thought that gender dysphoria (the current rage amongst leftist identity politics) was an example of Mother Nature retaliating against a rebellious species but gender dysphoria is actually limited to a very small segment of the population making it a more useful political tool than an actual method of limiting population growth. Gender dysphoria is more a symptom of excessive population growth than an actual methodology to limit such growth.

A more likely reason that the human population has reached its limit and is beginning to shrink is obvious, no matter how reluctant we may be to admit it. The emancipation of women in our Enlightenment based Western civilization has refocused many women toward their careers and deemphasized their maternal duties for the family. Women are living longer, having children later, and having fewer children. This does not necessarily imply an end to the human race. It does, however, imply a change in how humans live. But while declining birth rates are a troublesome statistic, it does not by itself explain what is happening to the human population. The human population will likely shrink until it hits a new equilibrium level. Lifespans will lengthen, working will continue well into what we now consider old age, children and families will come later in life, while retirements will be postponed and pension and social security payments pushed back.

I began this commentary with some preconceived notions about what was happening to humanity, but a more in-depth analysis of the data paints a more complex picture. We are having less children but we are also living longer more productive lives. I teased my wife the other day saying that I was thinking of retiring on Mars when I am 120 years old. The gravity on Mars is only about 38% that of Earth’s, so retirement up there makes sense. My wife thought such a notion farfetched and me a bit crazy but SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell predicted in a CNBC interview that Mars will have a population of one million persons as soon as 2035 or 2040 - long before my 120^th birthday. Elon Musk is right. Our future is out there. Earth cannot contain us.

So what we are experiencing is not Mother Nature’s Revenge on humanity. It is the opening of a new chapter in the story of human beings. But that does not mean we can sit back and relax while we watch this new chapter unfold around us. Our new feminized Western society still faces challenges. Many autocracies around the world, such as China, Russia and Iran, are clearly not feminized even though the role of women in those societies may be changing. Our Western civilization needs to protect itself from adversaries from different cultures and backgrounds so our women must shed at least a portion of their traditional role as mothers and nurturers and become fierce protectors similar to the females of other species.

It is unlikely that the men and women of the West will get this exactly right. We are experiencing a new stage in the evolution of Homo sapiens. But saving the benefits of our Western civilization as well as assuring the continuation of our species may depend upon what we do now. We do not want to follow Homotherium into oblivion.