Forever Negotiations

Perhaps the only thing worse than forever wars are forever negotiations. I have lost track of how many times President Trump has asserted that the Iranian regime desperately wants to renew negotiations toward a lasting peace, or at least one that will reopen the Straits of Hormuz. He will bundle Vice President JD Vance, or Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff or perhaps all three of them off to Pakistan, Qatar or some other middle eastern capital to meet the Iranians.

Of course, we don’t know which Iranians he hopes to negotiate with. After decimating the old clerical leadership of Ali Khameini and the military leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp it is unclear who has any authority to negotiate any peace deal. Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr, two middle eastern scholars at John Hopkins University, describe the new leadership in Iran in a recent article in Foreign Affairs Magazine (Iran’s New Grand Strategy). Most observers believe the new Iranian leadership is made up of Mojtaba Khamenei (the new Supreme Leader to replace his father), Mohammad Bagher Galibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament and Ahmad Vahidi, the new commander of the IRGC. But Bajoghli and Nasr point toward the new generations of leadership under these more prominent leaders as the primary driving force in Iran these days. In preparation for the anticipated American/Israeli attack, the Iranians had devolved political and especially military leadership away from Tehran and out into the field.

And these new, relatively young, leaders seem to really enjoy yanking President Trump’s chain. President Trump views the Iranians as if he was looking into a mirror, that they are motivated by the same urges that motivate him - riches and the prospect of future riches and wealth. After a devastating military campaign that wiped out most of the Iranian navy, air force and army along with much of their industrial capacity, who wouldn’t want to have a peace deal that would assure their continuation in office, great personal wealth along with rebuilding their country. All they have to do is give up their nuclear weapons and allow the oil to pass through the Staits of Hormuz. The authoritarian regime (now more of a military dictatorship than a theocracy according to Bajoghli and Nasr) would remain in place with all the reins of power and profit intact. The fate of the Iranian people would be of no more consequence to the negotiations than the fate of the Venezuelan people left in the somewhat soiled hands of Delcy Rodriguez and Diosdado Cabello.

But President Trump is unable to close this deal – even though most analysts believe the terms he has offered are very favorable to Iran. Tehran often disagrees on the meaning of the terms. The infamous MOU (memorandum of Understanding) apparently was not very understandable – Iran asserting that after the sixty days moratorium they would control the Straits. And Iran keeps insisting that enriching uranium is their sovereign right. The most recent pause was almost immediately denounced by the Iranian leaders who denied they were in even talks with the US and that, instead, they were negotiating with Oman about how to manage tolls on the Straits. 

Donald Trump’s art of the deal seems to be anything but. His squabbles with other world leaders seems to get pettier with each passing incident. It was bad enough that he did not consult with any European allies when starting a major war and he is now vilifying Italian prime Minister Melloni about whether she begged to have a photo op taken with him at the recent NATO conference. Everything seems to revolve around enhancing his image rather than accomplishing statecraft.

Recently, Hoover Institution  fellow, Kiron Skinner, lauded President Trump’s move to a more realistic world view, the so-called Trump Doctrine, based on national sovereignty and national interests (in line with the national conservative movement pushed by VP JD Vance). But Mr. Trump appears to be dancing to the tune of a new world order crafted by China and Russia (and Iran) rather than resetting the American global agenda. Ms. Skinner and many others appear to be supportive of Trump’s move away from the role of global leader that set the agenda of the Washington Consensus from the end of World War Two to the collapse of the Soviet Union. But, although that consensus was badly in need of review and modification, it had benefitted not only the US but the entire world while it lasted. The same does not seem to be the case for the new Trump doctrine. America a taken a step back from global leadership and the world is worse off for the change. American ideals and principles may not have been adopted by every country around the world but they were an inspiration for many people who sought freedom. And American soft power gave us tremendous influence around the world, but Trump power not so much.

Donald Trump has changed world affairs and American politics more than any politician in the last fifty years and maybe longer, but not necessarily for the better or to America’s  advantage. And although he is the agent of change, President Trump does not seem to be in control of the changes he is making. The Iranians have made it pretty clear that any peace agreement must match their national priorities, which are; 1) regional hegemony, 2) control of the Straits of Hormuz, 3) continued nuclear development, and 4) support of Islamic terror and the destruction of Israel. They might sign a peace agreement that does not include these priorities, but that does not imply that they will actually follow an agreement with infidels over their national and ideological priorities.

I think President Trump can’t figure out why he can’t make a deal with the Iranians. Or the Ukrainians. Or The Russians. Or anybody else for that matter. He is used to getting his way. He is accustomed to negotiating from a position of strength. He wants to take unfair advantage of his opponents in the negotiation. He isn’t seeking a fair deal. He is seeking one that works for him. He is the president of the richest, most powerful country in the world. Why can’t he make a deal. I think this is why he is going mad.