No Art in this Deal

It is hard to write a commentary about the war in Iran. Everything changes day-to-day but, strangely, nothing really significant seems to happen. A mercurial negotiator on one side (President Trump) trying to strike a deal with an intransigent but amorphous negotiator(s?) on the other while leaving a key third party on the sidelines is not a good set up for progress. Mr. Trump and his minions (JD and Marco) keep insisting on how close we are to a deal while the Iranians keep insisting that they are not agreeing to anything. Meanwhile the entire world is suffering from the side effects of this war, shortages of petroleum and other critical products such as fertilizer that have pushed prices to Biden-level rates of inflation.

The lack of progress toward ending this tragic war peacefully is understandable. Each of the antagonists has a different reason for entering the war and different goals that they want to achieve at the end of the war.

President Trump thought, especially after the military triumphs of the so-called 12-day war in 2025, that the overwhelming military might of the United States would quickly defeat the armed forces of Iran. And he was right. The Iranian army, navy and air force are almost completely destroyed. What he doesn’t understand is why the Iranians don’t admit that they were defeated and surrender (it is sort of the same dilemma that Vladimir Putin ran into in his war on Ukraine).

Mr. Trump’s “art of the deal” basically consists of bullying the other side into giving up and accepting a bad deal. Just ask the many investors in his bankrupt casinos. Or the multitude of contractors (and sub-contractors) he stiffed over the years. But sovereign countries are a different kettle of fish. Sovereign countries may not hold very good cards (as he told Ukrainian President Zelenskyy) but they might be playing a different game than he is.

When bullying the Iranians didn’t work, he tried to buy them off. It worked with the Venezuelans, why not the Iranians? But the Venezuelan leaders are thugs and crooks  - the Iranians are fanatics. They cannot be bought off. In his business deals Mr. Trump dealt with other men (most were probably men) that thought, more or less, like he did. That is not the case here. While President Trump’s bullying tactics may have worked with some smaller countries on trade deals and tariffs, he has been ineffective in dealing with Putin, Xi, Zelenskyy and anyone else with a little backbone (like Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen).

 The Israelis are fighting a different war. After October 7^th they realized that Iran and its proxies want to kill all the Jewish men, kill the Jewish children in front of their mothers and then rape and murder the mothers. To the Israelis, this war is existential. They don’t want a brokered peace deal, they want victory and defeat of the Iranian regime. Any peace deal would only give the Iranian regime time and money to rebuild their armed forces and restrengthen their proxies that surround Israel. Then there would be another October 7^th, and another and another until Israel was no more and all the Jews were dead. Some peace deal.

The Iranian regime has been asserting that they have already won the war and, as of this moment, they are correct because any cessation of conflict that leaves the regime in power is a victory for them. The initial attack by US and Israeli forces wiped out almost the entire leadership of Iran, both the clerics and the IRGC, but the regime somehow survived. In fact, an article in Foreign Affairs magazine by Iranian exiles (Iran’s New Grand Strategy, How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East) claims that the attacks have allowed a new generation of tougher more effective Iranians (mostly IRGC) to replace the sclerotic and corrupt leadership in power since the original revolution in 1979. If true Iran would emerge from the conflict richer and more powerful with a diminished US banned from the Middle East and Israel facing extermination.

Even if this oft predicted peace deal is announced in the next few days, weeks or months don’t believe it. It is not peace, just a temporary truce. The Iranian regime has been fighting its war with the West for 47  years and they are not about to give it up. Rope-a-dope worked great for Muhammed Ali and it is working pretty well for the Iranians too. As soon as any deal is signed the Iranians will start to lie and cheat to evade any restriction that they agreed to. It doesn’t matter if you cheat infidels.

Former Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed (What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran) that the US/Israeli military force has greatly weakened the Iranian position in the Middle East and that a strategic pause will work in our favor. I am not so sure but even she qualifies her statement by saying, “Strategic patience is hard, and it isn’t always satisfying. But time is on the side of the U.S. and its allies. Reaching no deal is fine. Reaching a bad deal isn’t.” Any deal or pause that allows the current regime to recover and regroup will be a bad deal.

If our Iranian exiles are correct, this new regime in Iran will be even more difficult to work with but more efficient than the old regime. If it is allowed to continue the future of not only Israel, but the entire Middle East will be very unpleasant for decades to come. The Iranian regime has got to go but getting rid of it will be very difficult. It cannot be done from thirty thousand feet. It will require boots on the ground. The initial stage of this war with Iran has been relatively bloodless. The next stage will not be so lucky. There will be US casualties. There will be Israeli casualties. There will be many more Iranian casualties but that will not stop them. The have the will to fight and they are willing to accept high losses (the fate of Iranian civilians is not of great concern to them). The Israelis will be willing to accept high rates of casualties – what choice do they have? The weak link is the US. If President Trump backs down from cleaning up the mess he created, he will go down as one of the worst presidents ever. I hope he remembers that.