Urgent Priorities

In a NeTw World Orderrump

As we enter the year 2026, we must confront the reality that we are living in a new world order. The old American led rules-based world order that was able to avoid great power conflict and provide economic growth and improved living standards across the globe is gone. It’s over. Kaput.

President Trump’s MAGA supporters praise his realist world view that they believe will make America great again while others believe this new world order makes the world a darker, scarier place. Many credit President Trump for single-handedly creating this MAGA world order. But on the other hand one could say that in reality President Trump has really only conceded to the world order created by China and Russia - that this new world order is the abdication of global leadership by the United States.

In the last several years I have posted a year-end essay on the urgent priorities for the upcoming year, repeatedly noting that most of those priorities are the same as those of previous years that have been ignored by our political leaders. And, indeed, many of those priorities remain in urgent need of being addressed. But has this new world order altered our priorities?

Trumpian Priorities

President Trump has outlined his priorities in his speeches and his recently published national security strategy. They are, 1) end mass migration, 2) reorder trade relations and 3) establish American hegemony over the Western Hemisphere.

End Mass Migration

The massive flow of illegal immigrants into the US has slowed to barely a trickle proving that the inflows experienced during the Biden administration were the product of willful neglect, incompetence or the desire to remake the demographic structure of America to favor Democrats. Probably a combination of all three. It is difficult for a culture to absorb so many millions of people. Many of these new immigrants reside in ethnic or religious communities and resist assimilation into American culture. The response of the Trump administration has been to deport large numbers of immigrants, starting with criminals. But they are also blocking legal immigration of highly qualified immigrants that have knowledge and skills that we need (often learned in American universities).

America needs a comprehensive immigration policy, one that meets the economic needs of the country while at the same time protecting our American cultural identity. The RAISE Act proposed by the first Trump Administration would be a good place to start. Based on an original proposal drafted by Democrat Barbara Jordan, the RAISE Act included a merit-based visa system (similar to Canada and other countries), visas for seasonal workers (which would offset the problems created by mass deportations), clarified asylum claims of refugees, and ended the abuses of the diversity lottery program. Neither extremes of the MAGA right and progressive left (blocking virtually all immigration versus open borders) serve the needs of our country.

Reorder Trade Relations

President Trump views international trade as a zero-sum game: if you have a trade surplus you are a winner, if you have a trade deficit you are a loser - and he hates losing. And he loves tariffs, not only as a mechanism to restructure trade flows, but also as an economic weapon that he can use to bully other countries at will (at least until the Supreme Court has it’s say). But Mr. Trump was correct that free trade wasn’t also fair trade and that many of our economic partners were taking advantage of us through their tariff and non-tariff barriers. The World Trade Organization was ineffectual in leveling the playing field even before China came on the scene.

After Covid it became apparent that the most efficient and cost-effective supply lines were not always the most secure supply lines. And as tensions between the US and China increased, it was also apparent that some supply lines of critical materials were vulnerable to manipulation by adversaries and other critical supply lines were exposed to potential hostile actions. Mr. Trump wants to reshore these critical supply lines to the United States but has opposed “friend-shoring” with our allies because he was just as tough with our allies as with our adversaries when it comes to tariffs.

Western Hemisphere Hegemon

President Trump considers the entire Western Hemisphere as part of America’s sphere of influence. That is why he continues to insist on the annexation of Greenland, partly because it’s geographic position makes it essential to the control of the arctic but also because Greenland is a territory of Denmark which lies within the Russian sphere of influence.

This is also why he is taking warlike actions against Venezuela. Blowing up Venezuelan boats (even if they are filled to the brim with drugs), seizing oil tankers and blockading the country are acts of war. The NSS 2025 says our policy is non-intervention in the affairs of other countries so why is he taking these warlike actions and threatening regime change in the case of Venezuela? It has little to do with the drugs coming from Venezuela because once this route is shut off drug runners will just find new routes for the drugs voraciously demanded by American consumers. But he is sending a message to all the other leaders in the Western Hemisphere that these actions could be directed at their countries if they don’t fall in line with the Trump agenda.

President Trump is diligently pursuing policies to address these priorities. Illegal immigration is down to a trickle and Homeland Security reports that 2.5 million illegal aliens have left the US while ICE has deported over six hundred thousand people. People may deplore his methods but they do seem to be working. And tariffs have not had the devastating impact many economists predicted. Inflation is still a bit high and unemployment is creeping up but GDP expanded nicely in the third quarter and the stock market is at record levels. And while Greenland is yet to be annexed and Venezuelan drug boats are still running, conservatives have been elected to replace left-wing governments in Honduras and Chile.

President Trump appears to be pleased with the results of his policies although polling indicates that most Americans are unhappy about how he is doing it. ICE raids on hardworking but illegal immigrants, arbitrary and constantly changing tariffs that affect the small business owners and undeclared wars make life for ordinary people uncertain.

Electoral Priorities

There are two issues that will become urgent priorities in the runup to the 2026 elections: affordability and healthcare. These two issues are actually interrelated because the primary problem with healthcare is that it is unaffordable. The fact that affordability is a problem for many Americans while the US economy is statistically doing pretty well means there is something wrong with how our economy works. But making our economy more affordable does not mean ever greater government interference. The least affordable states as ranked by US News and World Report are all deeply blue: California, New Jersey, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Washington and New York. And the Democrat-led big cities within those states are probably even less affordable than the states as a whole. So I would not look to government to make things more affordable (I think New Yorkers are in for a big surprise). To make things more affordable we need less regulation and more competition.

And the same analysis applies to our healthcare problems. Government rules and regulations have driven healthcare administrative costs to about 30% of total healthcare costs, much higher than other countries. And this does not just affect your wallet. Healthcare absorbs almost 18% of GDP which is about 6% higher than what other countries spend. That six percent could be spent on better, more productive things, such as our national defense. Plus, there is no price competition in healthcare. The ultimate consumer of healthcare services does not pay the cost of these services directly. So the only competition in healthcare is for insurance companies and healthcare providers to fight for government subsidies and payments.

There will be much “sturm und drang” regarding these priorities in the runup to the 2026 elections, but don’t expect much to be actually done regarding these issues.

Existential Priorities

As I have noted in other commentaries there are other priorities that have been ignored by both parties for decades.

National Defense

President Trump recently announced the creation of a “golden Fleet” to enhance our naval power which will feature the new Trump-class battleship. However an article by the Center for Strategic and International Studies doesn’t think these ships will ever be built citing the long development time for new ships and the enormous cost of the Golden Fleet ships. The Wall Street Journal also opined that the new battleship and another new proposed cutter would not be sufficient to rebuild the navy. Both the WSJ and CSIS recommended expanding our current fleet rather than developing new designs that won’t be ready until the mid-2030s.

And much of our current fleet has been withdrawn from forward positions and redeployed into the Caribbean as part of the confrontation with Venezuela. But these moves (although in line with the security strategy outlined in NSS 2025) seem to do little to offset the rapid expansion of the Chinese Navy. There has been little mention of confronting Russian aggression or about the defense of Ukraine. President Trump has put great emphasis on rebuilding our military strength but while his speeches talk the talk of rebuilding our military his budget proposals do not walk the walk.

A strong military requires a strong economy and a strong manufacturing base. A portion of President Trump’s tariff policies are designed to bring back to the United States the mining and manufacturing capabilities that we need for our defense. Our ability to expand our manufacturing capacity was key to our winning the Second World War. Future wars are not likely last as long as WWII so we need those capabilities up and running in advance of any conflict. Free trade requires a peaceful world and that is not the world we will be giving to our offspring.

A Strong Economy

President Trump keeps telling Americans how great our economy is now that he is back in charge, but he is having as much difficulty in getting people to believe him as Joe Biden did during his administration. The polling service Gallup reports that only 36% of respondents support his handling of the economy. But this is probably because of the affordability issue as the general public is often oblivious to the enormous deficits and mounting public debt. The American Action Forum reports that’s the deficit for FY2025 was $1.8 trillion or 5.9 % of GDP, increasing public debt by $2 trillion as payment of interest on the debt reaches almost $1 trillion (far in excess of defense spending).

Economic growth that requires unsustainable levels of deficit spending and mounting debt does not create a strong economy. And DOGE can cut vital government programs like weather forecasting and medical research all it wants. It will have little impact on future deficits. The only way to cure this problem is to reform the unwieldy and wasteful welfare system that encourages fraud and abuse while at the same time sapping the agency of our citizens. And voters need to learn that voting for ever greater benefits proffered not only by the progressive left but also by the MAGA right will not make a better future for their children.

Education

A well-educated populace as noted way back in the 1830s by Tocqueville was an essential factor in propelling American prosperity. But far from being the best-educated country in the world, America now languishes in mediocrity. This has been due in part to an excessive concern about students’ feelings over students’ performance but also due to a focus on indoctrination of leftist ideology over pride in America. President Trump’s drive to eliminate Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs from K -12 and universities is a good start but we still need to focus on improving performance. I don’t know if elimination of the Department of Education will serve our country well. Leaving education to the individual states could result in very different levels of performance between red and blue states. As future citizens of our democratic republic, young people have a responsibility to prepare for their future role as leaders of our country.

Conclusion

As I wrote this commentary I was getting pretty depressed about the prospects for a better future next year and beyond. And then I read an op-ed by Clay Routledge of the Archbridge Institute about American attitudes toward a better future and their ability to achieve the American Dream that appeared in the Wall Street Journal. The op-ed referenced a report by Archbridge titled Agency In America: The Power To Flourish that featured poll results showing that many Americans (most in fact) still believe in the American Dream and their agency to achieve it.

It is clear that our political elites on both the right and left have betrayed the people of our country. Our people want a shot at the American Dream and need the agency to achieve that dream. President Trump’s idea of an American Dream may not be your idea of an American Dream (it sure isn’t mine). Nor is Bernie Sanders’ or Zohran Mamdani’s vision shared by the people. Now come reports of many republicans retiring from the Trumpian Party as well as reports about centrist Democrats trying to retake their party from the progressive left. Perhaps there is still hope.