Adios Maduro. ¿Bienvenidos a Quien?

Many of my correspondents have been asking me for my perspective on the recent capture and arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife. While I am hesitant to add my voice to the cacophony of analyses and opinions blaring across the airwaMves and social media, there are some ideas that are relevant to this incident that people should keep in mind when drawing their own conclusions. These analyses and opinions vary according to which faction along the American divide the analyst is coming from. I will just try to stick to the facts.

1) President Trump thinks differently than most other political leaders so the ideas he comes up with and the actions that he takes are surprising to most people. They are even surprising to his most ardent supporters because they do not think like he does either.

2) Venezuelans and their supporters filling the streets throughout the hemisphere shouting “Libertad” (liberty) need to keep in mind that Mr. Trump’s Liberation Day was the day he imposed tariff on countries all over the world.

3) It was surprising to many people that when he was asked if he had been in contact with Nobel Prize winner Maria Corina Machado he said, “I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect.” This seems to be odd because when she was barred from being a presidential candidate (presumably because she was so popular) that the substitute she named won the election in a landslide.

4) If it was okay to arrest Mr. Maduro because he was not the legitimate president of Venezuela, then why wasn’t the name of Ms. Machado’s substitute, Edmundo Gonzalez, mentioned as the legitimate president of Venezuela.

5) If the Maduro regime was just a bunch of criminal thugs, gangsters and murderers then why did President Trump refer to Maduro’s second in command, Delcy Rodriguez, saying, “She had a long conversation with Marco and she said we'll do whatever you need. Uh she I think she was quite gracious. But she really doesn't have a choice. We're going to have this done right.”

6) Regarding the oil industry in Venezuela why did President Trump say, “We're going to take back the oil that frankly we should have taken back a long time ago. A lot of money is coming out of the ground. We're going to get reimbursed for all of that. We're going to get reimbursed for everything that we spend.”

Okay. So given these facts I now feel free to opine just a bit.

a) Mr. Trump supports the socialist vice president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, over Nobel prize winner Maria Corina Machado because he believes he can more easily manipulate Ms. Rodriguez because she knows that she has a target on her back and she knows her fate if she crosses Mr. Trump. Ms. Machado is a true Venezuelan patriot and would do what she thought was best for Venezuela no matter what Mr. Trump said.

b) The aftermath of Mr. Maduro’s removal smells more like a business deal than liberation for the Venezuelan people. Many people (many of them close to Mr. Trump) are going to get very rich from the reconstruction of Venezuela just like in Ukraine and in Gaza.

c) wouldn’t a unilateral action to remove the president of a country within your sphere of influence (as permitted under the Monroe doctrine now called the Donroe Doctrine) also justify Xi Jinping to take similar action against the president of Taiwan? Wasn’t this the justification for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?

d) The Venezuelan people want liberation not a corporate takeover. I don’t think they will be happy if Delcy Rodriguez is put in charge. The ultimate decision may be made on the streets of Caracas and not in the White House.

The aftermath of Maduro’s arrest does not seem as well planned as the capture. Keep these ideas in mind as things develop over the next several days and weeks.