Trump Is No Bonaparte

I expect that we will all see a frenetic amount of activity from the Trump administration in the months leading up to the 2026 mid-term election as President Trump tries to cement his legacy into the future of America prior to an expected Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in 2027. With a Speaker’s gavel again in the hands of a Democrat, the Democratic Representatives may attempt to undo and revoke the many changes implemented by President Trump if they can find time away from their principle objective of impeaching Mr. Trump over and over again with no hope of getting a conviction in the Senate. Good governance for the benefit of US citizens appears to be, at best, a secondary concern to the political kabuki that enthralls our political leaders of both parties.

But what sort of legacy will Donald Trump leave for future historians? Even a megalomaniac like Napoleon Bonaparte left us with the Napoleonic Code that guides the governance of many countries in Europe and around the world to this day. Not only that, Napoleonic conquests gave rise to German nationalism that culminated in the rise of Prussia, his overthrow of the Spanish monarchy motivated rebellions against Spanish colonialism in the Americas and his sale of Louisiana to the United States extended the manifest destiny of our country and also led to the Civil War as the North and South struggled over whether the new territory would be free or slave.

Or would Mr. Trump’s legacy be more like that of his fellow populist Juan Peron who remade Argentina from one of the wealthiest countries in the world into a financial basket case? And, while he is focused on creating a lasting legacy, many of President Trump’s previous achievements are coming up crappers in the long run.

The peace in Ukraine that he promised to achieve in 24 hours during his presidential campaign is now almost 10,000 hours overdue. The ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages (or their remains) was a great achievement but even as his “Board of Peace” is about to meet to decide the future of Gaza much of Gaza is still controlled by Hamas whose fighters have definitely not relinquished their weapons. His strike on Iranian nuclear facilities along with Israeli attacks have greatly weakened Iran, but the mullahs are still in charge of the greatly weakened country while many fear that the ongoing nuclear negotiations are just stall tactics that may fritter away our current strategic advantage. And while former Venezuelan president Maduro rots in a US prison the key leaders of his regime are still running the country. While the tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump have not had the dire effects many economists had predicted, the so-called “greatest economy in the history of the world” leaves most Americans disappointed and in a sour mood.

If Mr. Trump’s public legacy as a world leader appears to be a bit iffy these days, his private legacy for his family, friends, hangers-on and supplicants appears to be doing much better. An article in the Wall Street Journal, One Generation Runs the Country. The Next Cashed In on Crypto. published February 7, 2026, shows how Don, Jr. Eric and even 19 year-old Barron are making hundreds of millions in the crypto market. Also making millions are the sons of peace negotiator Steve Witkoff and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick along with their friends seen partying with Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who Trump pardoned in October. The Journal also documents how Trump golfing buddy oil magnate Harry Sargeant III hopes to take advantage of the post-Maduro oil opportunities in Venezuela. Mr. Sargeant, however, is deeply disliked by Venezuela’s democratic opposition for his closeness to the regime and Maduro’s successors. They consider Sargeant to be “ ‘the American supervillain in Venezuela’s regime story’ who gives priority to his personal profit above all else.” The Trump family fortunes have increased tremendously ever since the 2024 election with billionaires at home and abroad throwing money at the family. But even though the tokens of the Trump family World Liberty Financial have a market cap of around $3 billion now, I don’t think I would want to be long come January 2029.

Mr. Trump’s legacy is likely to be at the mercy of his successor. Luckily for him the Democrats apparently believe that the best way to fight Trump is to move further and further to the left – a tendency that propelled Mr. Trump into the White House in 2025. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio appear to be the leading candidates for the 2028 nomination although this is not certain as the MAGA base appears to be heading toward chaotic disintegration  amid conspiracy theories, resignations and loyalty tests.

Perhaps the most significant legacy of the Trump administrations will be the decline of the Western Alliance and the end of the American-led rules-based world order. But the enfeeblement of the West preceded the arrival of Donald Trump and, while he denounced the alliance as placing an unfair burden on America and the world order as hollowing out America’s manufacturing base and its blue collar workers, the relative peace, prosperity and security of that order backed by our system of alliances was so beneficial that rumors of its demise may be premature. To quote from Monty Python, “I’m not dead yet.”

As Ambassador Robert Blackwill asserted in a recent Hoover Institution discussion,

Alternative U.S. Grand Strategies: Past, Present, Future published February 14, 2026, America stands for something – not the law of jungle. Or as Hoover fellow Admiral James Ellis responded in the same discussion, “it's absolutely essential that America be both great and good.” Not just MAGA but MAGAGA.

President Trump commands the world stage. No doubt about that. But as Shakespeare wrote, “All the world's a stage, / And all the men and women merely players; / They have their exits and their entrances.” The Western Alliance may outlast even Donald Trump.